[转贴]中石油A是中国泡沫市的缩影
<P align=center><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman"><STRONG><FONT color=#ff0000 size=5>中石油“底”决定本轮熊市“底”</FONT></STRONG></SPAN></P><P align=center><STRONG><FONT size=4><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">——中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">是中国泡沫市的缩影</SPAN></FONT></STRONG></P><P align=center><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">武汉科技大学</SPAN> <SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">董登新（教授）</SPAN></FONT></P><P><FONT size=3><SPAN> 2007</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">年</SPAN><SPAN>10</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">月</SPAN><SPAN>16</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">日</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">，中国疯牛直冲</SPAN><SPAN>6124</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">点的历史巅峰，</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">股泡沫直逼</SPAN><SPAN>80</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">倍的平均市盈率。为此，疯牛传销大师们和吹“牛”股评家们却在拼命吼叫，他们振振有词、异口同声、理直气壮地告诉中国股民：</SPAN><SPAN>2007</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">年底目标</SPAN><SPAN>8000</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">点！</SPAN><SPAN>2008</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">年必将攻克</SPAN><SPAN>10000</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">点！</SPAN></FONT></P><P><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman"> 正是在这样一种疯狂的市场氛围中，中国石油选择回归内地</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">股市场</SPAN><SPAN>IPO</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">。然而，也就是在此时，巴菲特却公开抛空了中石油</SPAN><SPAN>H</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">股，并净赚了</SPAN><SPAN>40</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">亿美元。但有国人指责他傻，并质问他为何要抛掉中石油</SPAN><SPAN>H</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">，巴菲特客气地回答说：“当石油价格每桶</SPAN><SPAN>30</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">美元时，我认为石油股票大有投资价值，但当石油价格超过每桶</SPAN><SPAN>70</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">美元时，我就开始抛售中石油。目前</SPAN><SPAN>12</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">月交货的石油价格已突破</SPAN><SPAN>90</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">美元，风险实在太大了！”</SPAN></FONT></P><P><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman"> 就在上证综指冲顶</SPAN><SPAN>13</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">天后，即</SPAN><SPAN>2007</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">年</SPAN><SPAN>11</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">月</SPAN><SPAN>5</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">日</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">，中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">在上海证交所正式挂牌上市。在众多机构和股评家的“教唆”和“怂恿”下，中国股民奋力一搏，中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">终于以</SPAN><SPAN>48.60</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">元的全日最高价“闪亮”登场，当日收于</SPAN><SPAN>43.96</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">元。</SPAN></FONT></P><P><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman"> 中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">上市首日尽管高开低走，但收盘价较发行价仍大涨了</SPAN><SPAN>163.2%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">！并同时制造了一步到位的大泡沫：</SPAN><SPAN>57.8</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">倍的静态市盈率和</SPAN><SPAN>13.4</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">倍的市净率！应该说，当时中国股市的泡沫有多大，中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">上市首日的泡沫就有多大！换句话说，中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">一步到位的大泡沫，正好十分典型而充分地反映了当时中国股市的泡沫景象！</SPAN></FONT></P><P><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman"> 不过，格外引人注目的是，虽然中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">有着</SPAN><SPAN>30</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">亿股的实际流通大股本，但其首日换手率却高达</SPAN><SPAN>51.58%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">，并且全日成交额竟高达</SPAN><SPAN>700</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">亿元，占上交所全日成交额总和的将近一半！这究竟是机构之间的换手？还是庄家之间的阴谋？总之，的确是中小散户与广大股民上钩、上套、上当了！</SPAN></FONT></P><P><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman"> 同样值得重点关注的是，当中石油Ａ上市首日离谱高开，并收于</SPAN><SPAN>43.96</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">元时，中石油Ｈ却大跌</SPAN><SPAN>8.16</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">％！收于</SPAN><SPAN>18</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">港元！由此可见，中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">股收盘价是中石油</SPAN><SPAN>H</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">股同日收盘价的</SPAN><SPAN>2.44</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">倍，其</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">股比</SPAN><SPAN>H</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">股高估</SPAN><SPAN>154%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">！中石油</SPAN><SPAN>H</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">当日大跌，一方面表明了“港股中石油”对“</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">股中石油”估值的不认同，另一方面也反映了港股中石油对</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">股中石油后市走势的担忧！后来，事实证明这种担忧是有根据、有道理的。</SPAN></FONT></P><P><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman"> 从上市次日开始，中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">便一路走低、再不回头！伴随上证综指从</SPAN><SPAN>6000</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">点高位的不断下调，中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">先后跌破</SPAN><SPAN>40</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">元、</SPAN><SPAN>30</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">元关口，今天最低探至</SPAN><SPAN>21.34</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">元，直逼</SPAN><SPAN>20</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">元大关口。于是，有人不禁要问：是中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">带领上证综指下行？还是上证综指带领中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">下行？答案当然是前者！因为中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">是上证综指最大的权重股，因此，中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">的底部也就决定了上证综指的底部。</SPAN></FONT></P><P><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman"> 对于中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">的向下调整，曾有人生出不少幻想：该见底了，该反弹了！可它就是不反弹，反倒一个劲地创新低。于是，他们只好在绵绵不断的下跌中等待反弹；在等待中，眼睁睁地看着中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">不断地创新低。</SPAN></FONT></P><P><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman"> 今天，又有人着急地追问：中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">不断创新低的调整，究竟何时才是个尽头呢？</SPAN></FONT></P><P><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman"> 事实上，中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">不断下跌的过程，也正是中国疯牛泡沫不断破灭的过程，同时，也是中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">股投资价值自然回归的过程。至于何时是底部，这要看中石油</SPAN><SPAN>H</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">股的定价以及市场对中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">的信心。</SPAN></FONT></P><P><FONT size=3><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman"> 比方，今天，中石化</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">最低跌至</SPAN><SPAN>13.7</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">元（中石化</SPAN><SPAN>H</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">收盘价折</SPAN><SPAN>7.80</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">元），而中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">却仍收在</SPAN><SPAN>21.65</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">元（中石油</SPAN><SPAN>H</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">收盘价折</SPAN><SPAN>10.34</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">元）！这就是非正常的、悬殊巨大的市场差价！这两组比值很重要：一是中石油是否真比中石化值钱？二是中石油</SPAN><SPAN>A</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">是否应该比中石油</SPAN><SPAN>H</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">高估</SPAN><SPAN>100%</SPAN><SPAN style="FONT-FAMILY: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Times New Roman; mso-hansi-font-family: Times New Roman">以上？只有当这两个问题在市场上达成共识时，大盘就可以最终稳住了</SPAN></FONT></P> 原文由 梭鱼 发表: 中石油“底”决定本轮熊市“底” <br><HR><STRONG><FONT face=隶书 color=#0909f7 size=5>看来版主也是股友啊。</FONT></STRONG> 中石油“底”决定本轮熊市“底” 海友们喜欢在股市中畅游,冲浪.<br><br>我是股盲.<br><br>请教中石油发行的学问:<br><br>问:中石油发行价为什么是48元/股?<br><br>答:48元/股,是对股民的价格.<br><br>问:对机构,基金,银行的价格是多少?<br><br>答:16-17元/股.<br><br>问实际每股价值多少?<br><br>答:2-3元/股.<br><br>问:为什么2-3元/股的中石油要花48元/股买入?<br><br>答:老百姓有钱,没有投资渠道,银行多年都是负利率.<br><br>问:为什么企业向老百姓借钱,要一元股票换48元老百姓的血汗钱?<br><br>答:中国的股民们是一群可爱的老百姓,每天都在做发财的春秋大梦.<br><br>看来我也成股友了. <P>原文由 梭鱼 发表: 海友们喜欢在股市中畅游,冲浪.<BR><BR>我是股盲.<BR><BR>请教中石油发行的学问:<BR><BR>问:中石油发行价为什么是48元/股?<BR><BR>答:48元/股,是对股民的价格.<BR><BR>问:对机构,基金,银行的价格是多少?<BR><BR>答:16-17元/股.<BR><BR>问实际每股价值多少?<BR><BR>答:2-3元/股.<BR><BR>问:为什么2-3元/股的中石油要花48元/股买入?<BR><BR>答:老百姓有钱,没有投资渠道,银行多年都是负利率.<BR><BR>问:为什么企业向老百姓借钱,要一元股票换48元老百姓的血汗钱?<BR><BR>答:中国的股民们是一群可爱的老百姓,每天都在做发财的春秋大梦.<BR><BR>看来我也成股友了. </P><P><HR></P><STRONG><FONT face=隶书 color=#0909f7 size=4>有点意思，哈哈哈！今天可是跌惨了。</FONT></STRONG> 跌多少? 和朋友谈股论金,被警告,初入股市总是反向炒盘,<br><br>例如:我想现在买入中石油:心想48元发行价现在24元进,将来48元出,那叫美啊!<br><br>正确的操作,应该等到12-14元进,现在还不忙,哈哈.<br><br>所以选择中石油,因为它能折腾.也垃圾.可以练手.
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